The Comité de Operación Económica del Sistema (COES), Peru’s power system operator, is preparing for increased integration of variable renewable energy (vRE) like wind and solar, following the national aim to raise non-conventional renewable energy from 5% to 20% by 2030. Accurate power forecasting is essential to ensure system stability as vRE grows. A relevant recommendation from a prior study was shifting from decentralised forecasting, which relied on individual plant operators, to a centralised system.
In partnership with GET.transform, COES piloted a centralised forecasting system with energy & meteo systems. The 11-month project (Feb-Dec 2023) involved providing forecasts for all major solar and wind plants, benchmarking the centralised system’s accuracy against the plant operators’ forecasts. The pilot confirmed that centralised forecasts were more reliable and accurate, supporting better power system management.
The pilot also showcased the centralised system’s adaptability, like issuing early alerts for solar eclipses, swiftly incorporating new power plants, or the possibility of further improvements by reducing the delays in real-time data transfer. As Peru’s renewable energy sector expands, this approach is expected to play a crucial role in managing the increasing wind and solar energy, prompting COES to adopt an optimised forecasting system for future vRE integration efforts.
